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EmailIphone Application    Posted: 14th September 2010
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Concern Over Use of Statistics in TB Campaign
Wales’ Chief Veterinary Officer, Dr. Christianne Glossop, has written to the Chairman of the Badger Trust to express her concerns at the way the Trust is using the TB National Statistics in their campaigning.

According to Dr Glossop, while recently there has been a welcome decline in the monthly TB statistics, the historical trend is still upward. The assertion by the Badger Trust that the fall in the numbers is “in line with longer-term statistics showing a consistent downward trend of about seven percent over the last two and a half years both in Wales and Great Britain as a whole” is therefore untrue.

In her letter to the Badger Trust, Dr. Glossop said: “While any reduction in the TB statistics is welcome, it would be premature to suggest a turning point has been reached, based on the available data. Statistics must be used and interpreted with care and the TB statistics need to be analysed over time to observe a trend. TB is a long term epidemic and historically the trend has been upwards. We have seen short term falls before – for example in 2004 and 2006.

   “As much as we would like to take credit for the recent decrease observed in the Welsh TB statistics, it is far too early to say whether the stricter cattle controls, increased testing and our zero tolerance approach to not complying with regulations are making a difference."  

In her letter the Chief Vet included charts of the number of animals slaughtered and the number of confirmed new incidents each quarter for Wales and the whole of Britain from 2007 to 2010 extracted from the National Statistics. The charts reinforce the danger of trying to identify short term trends and turning points in the presence of such huge variation.

The main picture is a highly variable series with large variations around any underlying trend. The main messages are:
  • The levels of TB remain unacceptably high;
  • The number of animals slaughtered in quarter 4 2008 and quarter 1 2009 seem high compared to the rest of the series, particularly in Wales;
  • Results for later 2009 and 2010 are broadly in line with similar periods in 2007 and 2008.
Dr. Glossop said that she was pleased that the Trust supported the cattle measures that the Welsh Assembly Government have put in place within the pilot area in west Wales, as the TB Eradication Programme has recognised from the outset that these stricter controls will play an important part to reduce the risks of spreading bovine TB.

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Birmingham Dogs Home makes urgent appeal

News Story 1
 Birmingham Dogs Home has issued an urgent winter appeal as it faces more challenges over the Christmas period.

The rescue centre has seen a dramatic increase in dogs coming into its care, and is currently caring for over 200 dogs. With rising costs and dropping temperatures, the charity is calling for urgent support.

It costs the charity £6,000 per day to continue its work.

Fi Harrison, head of fundraising and communications, said: "It's heart-breaking for our team to see the conditions some dogs arrive in. We really are their last chance and hope of survival."

More information about the appeal can be found here. 

Click here for more...
News Shorts
Avian flu confirmed at premises in Cornwall

A case of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has been detected in commercial poultry at a premises near Rosudgeon, Cornwall.

All poultry on the infected site will be humanely culled, and a 3km protection zone and 10km surveillance zone have been put in place. Poultry and other captive birds in the 3km protection zone must be housed.

The case is the second avian flu case confirmed in commercial poultry this month. The H5N5 strain was detected in a premises near Hornsea, East Riding of Yorkshire, in early November. Before then, the disease had not been confirmed in captive birds in England since February.

The UK chief veterinary officer has urged bird keepers to remain alert and practise robust biosecurity.

A map of the disease control zones can be found here.